Will the Great Lakes be a climate refuge?

In an earlier post on the impact of climate change on the Great Lakes, I shared very real challenges that the Great Lakes and region will face in the years ahead. I closed the post foreshadowing this post on a different question: Will the Great Lakes be a climate refuge?

The International Economic Partnership estimates that 1.2 billion people will be displaced by climate change by 2050. In the United States, access to water is starting to impact growth in places like Arizona where earlier this year Phoenix had to slow housing construction due to lack of water resources. In the past 20 years over 5,000 people have been killed by major hurricanes. Tornadoes, heat waves and major wildfires have become routine events across the country. There will be a future of climate migrants, “climigrants”, driven to seek new places to live.

There are reasons that climigrants might choose the Great Lakes region:

1. Fresh water access. Sharing my often repeated fact: The Great Lakes hold 84% of all surface freshwater in North America.
2. Less extreme weather events than some areas of the country. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has an interactive natural disaster risk map that shows the Great Lakes region as remarkably free of threats compared with much of the country.
3. Moderating climate. Those famous, frigid Great Lakes winters? They still happen, but temperatures are rising and snow and frost days are declining. By 2050, average temperatures in the region are expected to increase by 3 to 5 degrees since 1951. The number of frost-free days increased by 16 days between 1951 and 2018. This National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) page summarizes Great Lakes region climate change headlines.
4. At present, more affordable housing than many places in the US. According to Zillow, the average current home value in the Great Lakes region ranges from a high in Minnesota of $307,000 to a low in Ohio of $219,700. Most all Great Lakes states are ranked between 20th and 40th among US states.

There are also reasons that the idea of a climate haven or refuge might be too hyped:

1. Per my past post, negative impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes. And some threats may grow faster or differently than anticipated – e.g. this summer’s Canadian wildfire smoke.
2. Climate politics. This varies state to state in the region. Unfortunately, here in Ohio, policies from the current statehouse and governor have not been climate-friendly including a bill the governor jammed through in December 2022 redefining natural gas as a “green energy”.  
3. Decaying infrastructure. Drinking water, sewer and stormwater management improvements are needed in many places. Illinois and Ohio lead the list of states with the largest number of lead water lines still in use. Investment is needed in properties to make them livable and strategy needed to keep housing affordable proportional to regional jobs.
4. Economics. To attract new people who will stay, a wide range of job opportunities need to exist. Growing remote work opens up new avenues for some demographics but some Great Lakes economies remain fragile with the decades-long decline in manufacturing in the region.

I am grateful to live in this geographical region. There is an opportunity to attract a new generation of people seeking a stable, safe, livable place to settle. But for this to happen, there will need to be the vision, plan and political and popular will to prepare for it and reinvent ourselves and our way of living. I hope we find the courage to make this shift.